Football bettors get a double dose of primetime action with two Monday Night Football matchups on the Week 3 odds board, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Buffalo Bills.
With Buffalo off a lopsided TNF win, my Jaguars vs. Bills predictions have us backing the home side.
I break down the opening lines and give you my NFL picks for Monday, September 23.
Jaguars vs Bills predictions
Early spread leanBills -5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
If you read my Sunday night column, “Bet Now, Bet Later” you already know I’m on the Buffalo Bills after this spread opened as low as -5. As of Monday morning, most shops are at Bills -6 but there are a handful dealing an expensive -5.5.
Getting Buffalo under the key number of six is vital to this bet, especially when you start working in the rest advantage and home-field edge for Buffalo on Monday night. Given those angles and this current spread, the market is saying the Bills would be around -2.5 to -3 on a neutral site.
Considering this look-ahead line was Buffalo -5 in the summer and what we’ve seen from the Jacksonville Jaguars — or maybe what we haven’t seen — I’m not rushing to bet on the Jaguars. I will say, the Jags should be 1-1 after a goal-line fumble cost them a Week 1 victory against the Dolphins.
Trevor Lawrence is having a tough time connecting on his deeper strikes, sitting second in intended air yards per attempt but completing only 51% of his passes. His CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) is in the toilet and Buffalo’s pass defense has been solid in the opening two games against explosive attacks in Arizona and Miami.
As for the Bills offense, Buffalo could have an advantage with its towering group of receivers. The Bills swapped out speedsters for bigger targets in 2024 with several pass-catchers standing 6-foot and taller, including a duo of big tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Jacksonville’s starting corners top out at 6-foot and only one starting safety is taller than that.
If the Bills can keep lighting up the scoreboard, having scored 65 total points in the opening two games, Jacksonville will have a tough time keeping pace.
Early Over/Under leanUnder 46.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The look-ahead total for this Week 3 matchup was at 49 points in the summer, but Jacksonville’s offensive issues have hacked almost a field goal off this number.
The Jaguars have a combined 30 points in two outings while leaving tallies in the breeze due to a 3-for-7 success rate inside the red zone. They’re also 28th in third down conversions (26.32%) which leaves them 28th in time of possession entering Week 3. Those are vital areas to coming away with wins on the road.
Defensively, Jacksonville will be Buffalo’s toughest test this season, which isn’t saying much. The Bills bodied the Cardinals and Dolphins dreadful stop units, and the Jaguars looked much stronger in Week 2.
They did a good job getting Cleveland off the field on third down and allowed the Browns inside the red zone only once. That said, that likely had as much to do with Deshaun Watson & Co. as it did with the Jacksonville defense.
The Bills are extremely efficient on offense and scoring the second-highest points per play, behind only New Orleans, with OC Joe Brady finding a good balance in his play calling. Allen hasn’t been pressured much and the Jags likely won’t challenge him, as they don’t blitz and have cooked up pressure on less than 11% of their opponents’ dropbacks.
Buffalo can mix in short hits to those bigger targets and a healthy dose of handoffs to RB James Cook, helping it control tempo and clock. If the Bills hold a lead in the second half, expect things to slow down as Buffalo takes the air out of the ball and keeps this final score low.
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
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